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基于改进条件概率法的服役结构可靠性研究
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作者:
作者单位:

1.长沙理工大学 土木工程学院，湖南 长沙 410114;2.江西中煤建设集团有限公司，江西 南昌 330001

作者简介:

杨春侠（1972-）(ORCID：0000-0003-3556-5434)，女，副教授，主要从事结构可靠度、结构抗震方面的研究。E-mail：ycx3346@126.com

通讯作者:

杨春侠（1972-）(ORCID：0000-0003-3556-5434)，女，副教授，主要从事结构可靠度、结构抗震方面的研究。E-mail：ycx3346@126.com

中图分类号:

TU375

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(51678067、51808054)


Reliability research of service structure based on improved conditional probability method
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Civil Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha 410114,China; 2.Jiangxi Zhongmei Engineering Group Co., Ltd., Nanchang 330001,China

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    摘要:

    【目的】探讨传统可靠度计算方法不适用于服役结构可靠性分析的问题。【方法】对相关变量进行截尾处理并考虑结构承受的验证荷载的作用，提出了改进条件概率法。利用改进条件概率法对某服役混凝土重力坝的典型非溢流坝段的结构可靠度进行分析，并考虑结构抗力和荷载时变模型，计算了大坝坝基面抗滑稳定的动态可靠度。【结果】大坝坝基面的抗滑稳定可靠度随着服役时间的增长而降低，同时考虑验证荷载的影响对结构可靠度指标具有一定的提高作用。【结论】由于改进条件概率法考虑了验证荷载的影响并对相关变量进行了截尾处理，其计算结果比经典的可靠度计算方法的计算结果更加符合工程实际情况，为预测服役工程的剩余寿命提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    ［Purposes］ The paper aims to explore the problem that the traditional reliability calculation method is not applicable to the reliability analysis of service structures.［Methods］ The improved conditional probability method was proposed considering the truncation of correlation variables and the effect of proof-load. The proposed method was applied to analyze the structure reliability of a typical non-overflow section of a concrete gravity dam in service. The dynamic reliability of anti-sliding stability of the dam foundation surface was calculated considering the resistance of structure and the load time-varying model.［Findings］ The anti-sliding stability reliability of the dam foundation surface decreases with the increase of service time, and the reliability index of structure can be improved by considering the influence of proof-load.［Conclusions］ Due to considering the effect of the proof-load and the truncation of correlation variables, the improved conditional probability method is more in line with the actual situation of the project than the classical reliability calculation method, which can provide some reference for predicting the remaining life of the service project.

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杨春侠,曹倩,曾楠,等.基于改进条件概率法的服役结构可靠性研究[J].长沙理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2022,19(3):78-86.
YANG Chunxia, CAO Qian, ZENG Nan, et al. Reliability research of service structure based on improved conditional probability method[J]. Journal of Changsha University of Science & Technology (Natural Science),2022,19(3):78-86.

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